2026 poised to become second-hottest year on record, forecasters warn

Global temperatures are on track to make 2026 the second-hottest year in recorded history, according to fresh analysis from the European Union's climate agency. The forecast reflects the continuing impact of El Niño conditions, which remain active across the Pacific Ocean and are expected to maintain elevated atmospheric temperatures throughout the coming year.

October 2024 has already shattered temperature records, driven by the dual effect of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon and long-term climate warming linked to human activities. Climate scientists attribute the exceptional heat to the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions combined with the natural climate oscillation of El Niño, which temporarily raises global temperatures by releasing stored ocean heat into the atmosphere.

The projection underscores mounting concerns about breaching the internationally agreed 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial levels. Experts warn that exceeding this critical benchmark, enshrined in the Paris Climate Agreement, would intensify extreme weather events, disrupt agricultural productivity, and accelerate environmental degradation across vulnerable regions.

Climate monitoring agencies across the globe are increasingly focused on tracking how successive years of above-average temperatures compound climate impacts. The convergence of El Niño cycles with human-driven warming signals poses significant challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in South and Southeast Asia, regions particularly vulnerable to heat stress and precipitation anomalies.