Asia's rare earth cliff: two calendars, one law

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Asia Money Map episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/xO4epq7FNlo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>November 10 is the date written into China's own commerce ministry notice — Announcement No. 70 of 2025 — for when the one-year pause on its October 2025 rare earth export controls runs out. Both Washington and Beijing say the broader trade truce now stretches to 10 January 2027. As of 7 November, Beijing had still not published the amending notice that would move the rare earth date.</p>

<h2>The paperwork gap</h2>

<p>On 23 September, United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States–China trade truce would be extended to 10 January 2027. On 28 September, China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed the same date for the Kuala Lumpur arrangement. That MOFCOM statement talked about tariff and non-tariff measures. It did not name rare earths. Announcement No. 70, the legal suspension that froze last October's export-control package, still says 10 November 2026. Trade trackers including China Prospect and Meridian Intermediaries confirmed that as of 7 November, no amending announcement had appeared on MOFCOM's lists.</p>

<p>If that notice never lands, the October 2025 package returns: licensing for five more heavy rare earths — holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium — plus magnet-making equipment, high-energy battery materials, and an extraterritorial rule that can reach foreign-made products containing Chinese rare earths worth 0.1 percent or more of their value. Without an extension notice, exporters need licences again from 11 November.</p>

<h2>The controls that never paused</h2>

<p>The first controls never paused. China's April 2025 licensing on seven medium and heavy rare earths — samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — still requires an export licence. Dysprosium and terbium keep high-performance magnets working at temperature in electric-vehicle motors, robots, drones and defence systems. Meridian notes China produced around 69 percent of the world's rare earth mine output in 2025 and processes up to 90 percent. East Asia Brief puts Chinese refiners at over 90 percent of global permanent magnet capacity.</p>

<p>Washington is already pressing. On 6 November, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised the shortfall directly with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in a joint video conference, Greer's office said, according to East Asia Brief. American officials say Beijing has delivered only about two-thirds of its promised rare-earth volumes under the Busan commitments, with spot shortages in yttrium, dysprosium and terbium.</p>

<h2>Who feels it first in Asia</h2>

<p>Domestic Chinese magnet makers keep feedstock priority. JL MAG Rare-Earth runs about 40,000 metric tons a year of sintered neodymium-iron-boron capacity across Ganzhou, Baotou and Ningbo, and has broken ground on a Baotou expansion aimed at 60,000 tons by 2027, East Asia Brief reported. Japan's Shin-Etsu Chemical holds an estimated 18 to 20 percent of the global high-performance rare earth magnet market and runs an integrated plant in Hai Phong, Vietnam, of roughly 2,000 metric tons a year — a plant that still relies on separated rare earth intermediates that can face Chinese customs reviews if the waiver lapses.</p>

<p>There is a second calendar on the American side. One hundred seventy-eight Section 301 exclusions expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on 9 November unless extended. USTR has proposed keeping the maritime port-fee and crane duties suspended through 9 January 2027, but as of 7 November that proposal was not yet final, China Prospect reported. Asia's exporters face two clocks, not one.</p>

<p>Diplomats talk January. The gazette still says November. Until MOFCOM publishes an amending notice, Asia's EV, robot and electronics buyers should plan for licensing friction returning mid-week — not for a speech. The magnets that never left the April 2025 licence list are already a standing risk. A two-month truce extension announced in September is not a supply-chain plan. Watch MOFCOM's announcement list before 10 November, not the press quotes.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://chinaprospect.com/november-2026-us-china-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Prospect</a></li>

<li><a href="https://eastasiabrief.com/energy-minerals/us-presses-china-rare-earth-shipments-ahead-nov-10-1209" target="_blank" rel="noopener">East Asia Brief</a></li>

<li><a href="https://meridianintermediaries.com/insights/china-rare-earth-pause-extended-january" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meridian</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/05/china-rare-earth-export-pause-usar-mp-materials/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Motley Fool</a></li>

<li><a href="https://argus.yeomniverse.com/en/archive/2026-11-07/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Argus</a></li>

</ul>