Cebu's empty chair? Hegseth in, China unconfirmed

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/8t9jCcRwGNg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>One table, eight outside powers, and one chair nobody can vouch for. This week, Southeast Asia's defence ministers meet their partners from the United States, China, Japan, India, Russia and beyond in Cebu, in the Philippines. Washington says its war secretary, Pete Hegseth, is coming. Asked last week whether China would send anyone, the host, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, said: "They were sent a notice yesterday, so I really don't know." The question is not who gives the speeches in Cebu. It is who sets the rules on the water outside.</p>

<h2>The table in Cebu</h2>

<p>The 20th ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting and the 13th ADMM-Plus run from 26 to 30 October in Lapu-Lapu City, with the main ministerial sessions on 28 and 29 October. The Plus countries are the United States, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Russia. The Philippines, this year's ASEAN chair, has deployed 3,670 security and medical personnel, the Daily Tribune reports.</p>

<p>Teodoro has set out the agenda. "The situation in South China Sea will also be naturally taken up," he said, along with working papers on critical undersea infrastructure and maritime law. Almost all the Plus countries will attend, he said, as far as he knows. China, the region's largest naval power, was the one he could not confirm.</p>

<h2>The water outside</h2>

<p>On 8 October, a China Coast Guard vessel fired a water cannon during the medical evacuation of a sick Filipino sailor from the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin, or Second Thomas, Shoal. The Manila Times reports the mission was delayed by nearly ten hours. Three days later, in Singapore, President Ferdinand Marcos said the episode "seems to indicate a new phase in escalation", adding: "Even in war, the Red Cross is allowed through."</p>

<p>The pressure has not stopped. On Sunday, the Philippine Coast Guard drove an unauthorised foreign fishing boat out of the territorial waters of Pag-asa Island while a China Coast Guard vessel and two small boats followed and monitored, the coast guard said. It was the agency's seventh such operation in less than four weeks. Taiwan's Central News Agency reports that concern over undersea cables has grown since a Chinese survey ship was spotted lingering off the northern Philippines. Our reading: Beijing is turning the sea into a permission system, and Manila is answering by showing up, again and again.</p>

<h2>Washington and Tokyo play the week</h2>

<p>The Pentagon, now styled the Department of War, said on Sunday that Hegseth will travel to reaffirm what it called "peace through strength" in the Pacific, and hold meetings to "strengthen deterrence" and "expand burden-sharing". Japan's defence minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, said on Friday he is arranging talks with Hegseth on the sidelines, Kyodo reports.</p>

<p>The week also sets up November. ASEAN leaders meet in Manila from 16 to 18 November, with President Donald Trump expected, before APEC in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November, where he is expected to meet President Xi Jinping. Manila wants a South China Sea code of conduct as a headline deliverable, but the Manila Times reports the hardest questions, including whether it would be legally binding, are still being argued. Our reading: a code Beijing is still negotiating, and a defence table it may not join, are two sides of the same leverage.</p>

<p>There is a precedent. In September, during the ADMM-Plus maritime exercise near Scarborough Shoal, a Chinese warship was spotted about ten nautical miles from the formation. The Philippine Navy radioed an invitation to join in. ABS-CBN reports the warship did not respond.</p>

<p><strong>The scorecard.</strong> On the table, the edge is Washington's: Hegseth confirmed, Tokyo lining up talks, almost every partner coming. On the water, the edge is Beijing's: pressure at Ayungin, a coast guard shadow at Pag-asa, and no rules in sight. On the rules, nobody leads: the code of conduct is still unfinished. On the calendar, Beijing holds a card: Shenzhen, and Trump's visit, come after Manila.</p>

<p><strong>Our verdict:</strong> Cebu will show who turns up, not who is winning. If China's chair stays empty, Washington gets the photograph, but Beijing keeps the sea and saves its concessions for Shenzhen. Three things to watch: whether Beijing confirms a delegation, whether the ministers' joint declaration names the South China Sea, and whether Hegseth's burden-sharing message lands as reassurance or as a bill.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://thechronicle.com.ph/key-security-issues-to-be-tackled-in-admm-plus-meeting-in-cebu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philippine News Agency (Priam Nepomuceno) via The Chronicle, 23 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/10/25/pnp-afp-deploy-3670-for-asean-defense-meets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune (Rico Osmeña), 26 Oct 2026 4:14 AM PHT</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/09/news/pcg-evacuates-sick-navy-officer-from-ph-ship-at-ayungin-shoal-amid-chinese-water-cannons/2442466" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times, 9 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/11/news/marcos-warns-of-new-phase-of-escalation-in-west-philippine-sea/2443297" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times (Catherine S. Valente), 11 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.inquirer.net/492591/marcos-sees-new-phase-of-escalation-in-west-philippine-sea/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;Marcos told reporters in Singapore.&quot; Also Inquirer, 11 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://thechronicle.com.ph/pcg-drives-foreign-fishing-vessel-out-of-pag-asa-waters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Chronicle (citing PIA/PCG), 26 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202610230146.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA Taiwan (中央社), 23 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.war.gov/News/Advisories/Advisory/Article/4633052/secretary-of-war-pete-hegseth-to-visit-the-philippines-and-participate-in-the-a/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Department of War advisory, 25 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.sankei.com/article/20261026-326EELV2OVNGRDFADT6WVOB6VA/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kyodo via Sankei, 26 Oct 2026 09:25 JST</a></li>

<li><a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/89241" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kyodo English flash, 23 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/12/tmt-anniversary/ph-to-take-center-stage-in-asean-summit/2440665" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times (Bernadette E. Tamayo), 12 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/1019/c90000-20510015.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">People&#x27;s Daily Online, 19 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2026/9/24/ph-navy-invites-chinese-warship-to-join-admm-plus-formations-during-wps-sail-1404" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABS-CBN News (Bianca Dava), 24 Sep 2026</a></li>

</ul>