China's role could prove crucial to Rohingya repatriation efforts

Bangladesh has long shouldered the burden of sheltering the world's largest refugee population, with over one million Rohingya living in sprawling camps in Cox's Bazar since 2017. The humanitarian strain has prompted regional and international stakeholders to seek pathways for voluntary repatriation, yet progress remains stalled without meaningful dialogue between Dhaka and Myanmar's military government.

China maintains significant political and economic influence over Myanmar, a relationship that has deepened through Belt and Road Initiative investments and military partnerships. Analysts suggest that Beijing's diplomatic channels could exert pressure on Myanmar to create conditions necessary for safe, dignified returns, including addressing security concerns and establishing credible accountability mechanisms.

However, China has historically prioritized stability and non-interference over human rights advocacy in its regional diplomacy. For repatriation efforts to succeed, stakeholders must convince Beijing that facilitating Rohingya returns aligns with its broader interests in regional peace and Myanmar's economic development.

Bangladesh continues to advocate for international support, but the country's capacity to manage the camps indefinitely remains limited. Experts warn that without concrete progress on repatriation within the coming years, the humanitarian situation could deteriorate further, underscoring the urgency of leveraging all available diplomatic channels, including engagement with major regional powers like China.