World · India Bureau
Corporate earnings seen resilient despite oil, geopolitical headwinds
Nomura projects double-digit earnings growth for the remainder of the fiscal year, though sustained crude oil prices above $100 per barrel pose a downside risk to corporate valuations across the region.
LSN India ·
Japanese investment bank Nomura has flagged a mixed outlook for corporate profitability, expecting earnings growth of 11-12% over the remaining nine months of the current fiscal year, excluding the oil and gas sector. The forecast underscores underlying resilience in non-energy corporate earnings, supported by operational momentum across most sectors in the South and Southeast Asian region.
However, the analyst note highlights persistent risks that could derail this optimistic scenario. Geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty in global markets, while crude oil prices remain a critical variable. Should crude sustain levels above $100 per barrel, Nomura cautioned that multiple sectors could face earnings downward revisions, weighing on overall valuation multiples.
The nuanced view reflects the complex operating environment facing corporates in the region. While domestic demand and operational efficiencies are providing support, external factors—particularly energy costs and global macro conditions—remain potential headwinds. Investors are being urged to monitor oil price trajectories and geopolitical developments closely as they assess earnings sustainability through the remainder of the financial year.