Politics · World News Bureau
Dong skips Cebu: Beijing downgrades, Hegseth works the room
China is sending its Manila defence attaché, not its defence minister, to the ASEAN defence talks in Cebu. Washington is filling the room, but the contest that matters is still on the water.
LSN World News ·
<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/kZNuRbIiS5Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>
<p>For the past two years, China's Defence Minister Dong Jun attended the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus in person. This year, Beijing is sending its defence attaché from its embassy in Manila to the gathering in Cebu, while US War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who landed in the Philippines on Tuesday night, works the room. The downgrade raises a simple question: what does it buy Beijing, and what does it hand Washington?</p>
<h2>The chair</h2>
<p>On Tuesday, 27 October, China's Ministry of National Defense said its defence attaché in the Philippines would represent China at the 13th ADMM-Plus in Lapu-Lapu City, Reuters reports. The ministry said China would reiterate its firm support for the centrality of ASEAN. It gave no reason for the minister's absence.</p>
<p>The South China Morning Post notes that the meeting clashes with the Communist Party's fifth plenum, which runs in Beijing from Monday to Thursday, and that Dong is expected to attend as a member of the Central Committee. That is a real calendar clash, but it is also a choice. An attaché cannot hold the kind of minister-to-minister talks that Japan's Defence Minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, held with Dong at last November's meeting, talks that lasted about 50 minutes, according to the Japan Times.</p>
<h2>The room, and the sea behind it</h2>
<p>Hegseth arrived in the Philippines on Tuesday night, GMA News reports. The Pentagon says his attendance reaffirms Washington's commitment to "peace through strength" in the Pacific, according to Reuters.</p>
<p>On Wednesday, India's Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, met Hegseth on the sidelines. Singh said on X that they "reviewed the progress of our 10-year India-US Defence Framework", and Hegseth said they marked its first anniversary, DD News reports. The host, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, has said he will hold a bilateral meeting with Hegseth as well as a meeting of the so-called Squad: the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. Reuters reports that those defence chiefs were set to meet on Wednesday. Manila is also hosting two informal ASEAN meetings, one with the United States and one with Japan, the Daily Tribune reports.</p>
<p>Count the formats: India, the Squad, ASEAN with Washington, ASEAN with Tokyo. China is in none of them at minister level this week.</p>
<p>The mood in Cebu was set on the water, and in words. On 15 October, China's ambassador in Manila, Jing Quan, said: "If we want to use force, we may easily win. But no, we will not choose force, and we love peace." Manila's foreign ministry called the remark "a thinly veiled threat" and summoned him on 19 October, the Inquirer reports.</p>
<p>On 22 October, the Liaoning carrier group came within about 15 nautical miles of Philippine land off Mindanao. It was shadowed by Philippine ships and did not answer radio challenges. The Armed Forces of the Philippines called the passage "no cause for alarm".</p>
<p>On Monday, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, said: "We oppose attempts by anyone to use this platform to seek selfish gains, hijack ASEAN and create trouble." Opening the ASEAN-only meeting on Wednesday, Teodoro said South China Sea differences should be settled through "peaceful and legal means", adding: "We should not allow our differences to divide us from within."</p>
<h2>The scorecard and the verdict</h2>
<p>On presence, the edge is Washington's: a secretary in the room beats an attaché in the chair. On message, the edge is Beijing's. By staying away, China avoids being cornered over the South China Sea at a forum chaired by its sharpest critic, and keeps its line that outsiders are trying to hijack ASEAN. Among partners, the edge goes to New Delhi, which banked a visible meeting with Washington and speaks on Thursday.</p>
<p>For ASEAN itself, the result is a draw at best. Greg Poling of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative told Reuters he expects "tactical cooperation" but "no strategic alignment on the South China Sea". Washington also has its own gap to explain: analysts told Reuters that partners will want answers on how the Iran war squares with American commitments in the Pacific.</p>
<p>Our verdict: Beijing has not walked out of Cebu; it has stepped down a rank. In LSN's reading, that is a calculated signal, not a break with ASEAN, and it hands Washington the room for two days. But a room is easy to fill, and a sea is not.</p>
<p>Three things are worth watching on Thursday: the chairman's statement on the South China Sea, whether Hegseth sits down with any Chinese official at all, and the handover of the chair to Singapore, which takes over in 2027. Washington wins the week. The water decides the year.</p>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://interaksyon.philstar.com/politics-issues/2026/10/27/321074/china-to-send-defense-attache-to-asean-meeting-in-philippines/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters via Interaksyon, 27 Oct 2026, "China to send defense attaché to ASEAN meeting in Philippines"</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16496447.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Ministry of National Defense, 27 Oct 2026, ADMM-Plus attendance announcement</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rappler.com/world/asia-pacific/hegseth-us-role-indo-pacific-asean-summit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters via Rappler, 28 Oct 2026, "Hegseth likely to face questions on US role in Indo-Pacific at ASEAN summit in Cebu"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3372323/chinas-defence-minister-dong-jun-miss-asean-defence-talks-fifth-plenum-convenes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South China Morning Post, 27 Oct 2026, "China's Defence Minister Dong Jun to miss Asean defence talks as fifth plenum convenes"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/27/japan/koizumi-asean-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Japan Times, 27 Oct 2026, "Koizumi heads to Philippines for ASEAN defense talks, but China meeting unlikely"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/1007420/watch-us-war-chief-hegseth-arrives-in-ph-for-asean-defense-meeting/story/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GMA News, 28 Oct 2026, "US War chief Hegseth arrives in PH for ASEAN defense meeting"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://ddnews.gov.in/en/rajnath-singh-pete-hegseth-review-india-us-defence-framework-at-cebu-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DD News, 28 Oct 2026, "Rajnath Singh, Pete Hegseth review India-US defence framework at Cebu meeting"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://thechronicle.com.ph/teodoro-to-hold-bilateral-meeting-with-us-counterpart-this-week/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philippine News Agency via The Chronicle, 26 Oct 2026, "Teodoro to hold bilateral meeting with US counterpart this week"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/10/27/asean-defense-chiefs-meet-in-cebu-for-security-talks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune, 27 Oct 2026, "ASEAN defense chiefs meet in Cebu for security talks"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.mindef.gov.sg/news-and-events/latest-releases/27oct26-nr/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore Ministry of Defence, 27 Oct 2026, "Minister for Defence to Visit the Philippines for 20th ADMM and 13th ADMM-Plus"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-easily-win-confrontation-philippines-6464791" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA, 16 Oct 2026, "China says can 'easily win' confrontation with Philippines"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.inquirer.net/493086/china-can-easily-win-using-force-but-wants-peace-says-envoy-to-ph/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philippine Daily Inquirer, 16 Oct 2026, "China can 'easily win' using force, but wants peace, says envoy to PH"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.inquirer.net/493361/dfa-summons-chinese-envoy-over-may-easily-win-west-ph-sea-remark/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inquirer.net, 19 Oct 2026, "DFA summons Chinese envoy over 'may easily win' West PH Sea remark"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2026/10/26/afp-chinese-aircraft-carrier-passage-off-mindanao-not-a-cause-for-alarm-1517" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABS-CBN News, 26 Oct 2026, "AFP: Chinese aircraft carrier passage off Mindanao 'not a cause for alarm'"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.dzrh.com.ph/post/chinese-aircraft-carriers-passage-off-mindanao-no-cause-for-alarm-afp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DZRH, 27 Oct 2026, "Chinese aircraft carrier's passage off Mindanao 'no cause for alarm' – AFP"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/1007346/china-s-liaoning-aircraft-carrier-group-in-ph-waters-no-cause-for-alarm-afp/story/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GMA News, 27 Oct 2026, "China's Liaoning aircraft carrier group in PH waters 'no cause for alarm' —AFP"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/10/27/chinese-vessels-ignore-afp-radio-challenges" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune, 27 Oct 2026, "Chinese vessels ignore AFP radio challenges"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://tribune.net.ph/2026/10/28/teodoro-calls-for-asean-unity-amid-regional-security-challenges" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Tribune, 28 Oct 2026, "Teodoro calls for ASEAN unity amid regional security challenges"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2026/10/28/teodoro-to-raise-south-china-sea-and-thailand-cambodia-disputes-in-asean-meetings-1058" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABS-CBN News, 28 Oct 2026, "Teodoro to raise South China Sea and Thailand-Cambodia disputes in ASEAN meetings"</a></li>
</ul>