Gas, haze and respect: Jakarta squeezes Singapore

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Asia Unfiltered episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/zceFclqMkdg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>Indonesia has cut 31 million standard cubic feet a day of pipeline gas exports to Singapore, a move that Singapore says amounts to less than 2 percent of its daily gas demand. The volume is small. The message is not: two of Southeast Asia's closest partners are now trading warnings over gas, haze and respect, with ASEAN meetings in Manila only weeks away.</p>

<p>From Saturday, 24 October, Indonesia's upstream regulator SKK Migas began diverting gas that had been flowing to Singapore: 15 million cubic feet a day from Natuna and 16 million from Sumatra, now feeding power demand in Batam, Bintan and Sumatra. The regulator said it was acting to safeguard the reliability of domestic gas supplies for electricity generation. Reuters notes that Batam and several cities in the Riau Islands suffered a 16-hour blackout earlier this month.</p>

<p>The timing tells its own story. Two days earlier, Indonesia's energy minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, said: "I will not hesitate to consider stopping exports to countries that do not respect Indonesia." He did not name any country. A day before that, President Prabowo Subianto told local media: "For certain countries that like to insult the Indonesian nation, in time we will reveal the companies."</p>

<h2>Haze, markets and a war of words</h2>

<p>The backdrop is the haze. Indonesia is battling what Reuters calls its most intense forest fires in 11 years. Nusantara Atlas says more than 1.9 million hectares burned in the nine months to September, and Indonesia's health ministry says more than 330,000 people across seven provinces have suffered acute respiratory illness since mid-August. The smoke has drifted into Singapore, Malaysia and East Timor. Singapore's environment agency has issued notices to companies in Singapore and Indonesia under its Transboundary Haze Pollution Act.</p>

<p>Then there is money. After MSCI warned on 15 October that it may downgrade Indonesia's stock market, a former Indonesian trade minister, Muhammad Lutfi, accused Singapore's Temasek and GIC of pressuring the index provider. He offered no evidence, and both have rejected the claim.</p>

<p>Singapore's Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, said on Sunday that he expects all parties to honour their commitments, and that Singapore's gas importer will protect its rights under the contracts. On Monday, Bahlil hit back. The cut, he said, is only about 8 percent, and Indonesia would be in breach only at 10 percent. According to Reuters, he told reporters: "Don't teach Indonesia on how to honour contracts."</p>

<h2>Why it matters beyond two neighbours</h2>

<p>First, energy. Singapore generates up to 95 percent of its electricity from natural gas. Last year, pipeline gas made up 43 percent of its gas imports. Its contracts with Indonesia expire at the end of 2028, and a second LNG terminal is due by the end of the decade. The real fight is not this month's 8 percent; it is the next contract.</p>

<p>Second, ASEAN itself. Indonesia was the last of the ten older members to ratify ASEAN's 2002 haze treaty, in 2014. Yet Malaysia's foreign minister, Mohamad Hasan, says he will bring an informal paper on a haze framework to the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in Manila on 14 November, a quiet admission that the old system is not working.</p>

<p>Third, the grid of the future. On Monday, Singapore gave conditional approval to import up to 1.3 gigawatts of renewable power from Vietnam and Malaysia. Cross-border grids only work if neighbours trust the power will keep flowing.</p>

<h2>The Unfiltered verdict</h2>

<p>Indonesia has a fair point. It may put its own power plants first, and it says it is still inside the contract. Singapore has a fair point too: haze is a regional harm, and companies that burn land should answer for it. But tying gas exports to respect turns a commercial contract into a diplomatic weapon. Veteran Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan called the cut an "attempt at intimidation", writing that "the cost to Indonesia will far, far outlive any twinge we may feel". Indonesia's Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan struck a calmer note: "Why would we even fight with Singapore?" Luhut is right. Indonesia's leverage is real, but it shrinks every time it is used, and the neighbours notice.</p>

<p>On Tuesday afternoon, the two foreign ministers, Vivian Balakrishnan and Arrmanatha Nasir, met behind closed doors in Jakarta. Three things to watch: whether the gas cut ends within the 18-day period Singapore's regulator cited, whether the haze reaches the table in Manila, and whether talks on contracts after 2028 stay quiet or turn public.</p>

<p>The smoke will clear when the rains come. Trust may take longer.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/indonesia-gas-singapore-supply-diversion-6488391" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA, 24 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia reduces gas exports to Singapore in order to &#x27;safeguard reliability&#x27; of domestic supplies&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-gas-cut-singapore-energy-minister-bahlil-lahadalia-6492401" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA (Kiki Siregar), 26 Oct 2026 (upd. 27 Oct 14:09 SGT), &quot;Indonesia says gas export cuts to Singapore within contractual limits, pledges to honour obligations&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/singapore-foreign-minister-heads-indonesia-025132514.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters (Xinghui Kok, Fransiska Nangoy), 27 Oct 2026, &quot;Singapore foreign minister heads to Indonesia amid tensions over gas and haze&quot;, via Yahoo News</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/indonesia-cuts-pipeline-gas-exports-to-singapore-by-about-9/article71621477.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters via The Hindu, 25 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia cuts pipeline gas exports to Singapore by about 9%&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/southeast-asia/indonesia-wildfires-haze-gas-export-singapore-b3072931.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Independent (Stuti Mishra, citing AFP), 26 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia cuts gas exports to Singapore amid row over haze&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2026/10/27/ministers-up-ante-in-ri-singapore-row" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Jakarta Post, 26/27 Oct 2026, &quot;Ministers up ante in RI-Singapore row&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/438187/indonesia-singapore-fms-meet-amid-gas-export-adjustments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANTARA, 27 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia, Singapore FMs meet amid gas export adjustments&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5814659/menlu-arrmanatha-nasir-terima-menlu-singapura-di-jakarta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANTARA, 27 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia, Singapore FMs meet amid gas export adjustments&quot; (more)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://go.kompas.com/read/2026/10/27/160117674/singapores-foreign-minister-meets-with-indonesian-foreign-minister-amid-natural" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kompas, 27 Oct 2026, FM meeting</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.cnnindonesia.com/internasional/20261027161627-106-1420201/menlu-ri-terima-lawatan-menlu-singapura-di-tengah-isu-asap-karhutla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kompas, 27 Oct 2026, FM meeting (more)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-stock-exchange-chief-defends-msci-after-ex-minister-alleges-singapore-interference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Straits Times (Hariz Baharudin), 21 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia stock exchange chief defends MSCI after ex-minister alleges Singapore interference&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2026/10/1564100/malaysia-push-asean-haze-framework-manila-meeting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Straits Times, 26 Oct 2026, &quot;Malaysia to push for Asean haze framework at Manila meeting&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/singapore/2026/10/26/singapore-gives-conditional-approval-for-vietnam-malaysia-renewable-power-project/240683" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malay Mail / Bernama, 26 Oct 2026, &quot;Singapore gives conditional approval for Vietnam-Malaysia renewable power project&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://asean.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/latest-news-in-asean-2015-01-20-20-jan-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore Permanent Mission to ASEAN, Jan 2015, &quot;Indonesia Deposits Instrument of Ratification of the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution&quot;</a></li>

<li><a href="https://cil.nus.edu.sg/databasecil/2002-asean-agreement-on-transboundary-haze-pollution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore Permanent Mission to ASEAN, Jan 2015, &quot;Indonesia Deposits Instrument of Ratification of the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution&quot; (more)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/indonesia-singapore-spats-escalate-over-haze-msci" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Asia, 27 Oct 2026, &quot;Indonesia-Singapore spats escalate over haze, MSCI&quot;</a></li>

</ul>