Gold could surge to $5,600 by year-end under bull scenario

Monarch Portfolio Management Services has outlined dual scenarios for precious metals valuations as the year progresses, reflecting varying risk factors and market conditions across global economies. In the more optimistic bull case, gold could appreciate substantially to $5,600 per ounce, while silver reaches $120, representing considerable upside from current levels for investors holding these assets.

The portfolio management firm's base case scenario, however, suggests a more moderate trajectory for both metals. Under this projection, gold would trade in a $4,300-$4,700 band by year-end, while silver settles between $70 and $85 per ounce. This wider base case range reflects the inherent uncertainties in global monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic developments that could influence precious metals demand and pricing.

The divergence between the two scenarios underscores the complexity of forecasting precious metals performance in the current environment. Multiple factors—including central bank policy decisions, currency movements, real interest rates, and safe-haven demand—could push markets toward either outcome. Investors tracking these projections will likely monitor key economic indicators and policy announcements that could signal movement toward the bullish or base case scenarios in coming months.