India recalibrates approach to Trump as US midterms loom

The warming between Modi and Trump that characterized their relationship in the mid-2010s has given way to a more cautious Indian posture toward the American political landscape. What was once a personal rapport between two populist-leaning leaders has evolved into strategic pragmatism, with New Delhi carefully hedging its bets ahead of the US midterm elections.

Indian policymakers have grown concerned about the unpredictability associated with Trump's political movement and its potential impact on bilateral relations. Issues ranging from trade policy to India's strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific have prompted New Delhi to seek stability and consistency from Washington, qualities officials worry may be lacking in a Trump-led Republican agenda.

Should Trump face significant losses in the midterms, Indian analysts suggest this could reset the terms of engagement between the two nations. A chastened Trump or a Democratic-controlled Congress would likely produce a more predictable US foreign policy framework, reducing uncertainties that have complicated India's long-term strategic planning.

The shift reflects a broader reorientation in New Delhi's approach to great power relationships. Rather than betting heavily on individual American leaders or movements, India is emphasizing institutional relationships and multilateral frameworks that transcend electoral cycles. This pragmatic recalibration underscores India's desire to maintain strong US ties while reducing dependency on personalities in American politics.