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India's 2026 monsoon ends with 13% rainfall deficit, worst since 2015

The India Meteorological Department has confirmed that the 2026 monsoon season concluded with a significant rainfall shortfall, marking the weakest performance in over a decade. October is also expected to see below-normal precipitation as El Niño conditions strengthen.

LSN India · 30 September 2026

India's 2026 monsoon ends with 13% rainfall deficit, worst since 2015

India's 2026 monsoon season has ended with a rainfall deficit of nearly 13 percent, the India Meteorological Department said, representing the poorest performance since 2015. The substantial shortfall underscores the challenges faced by the agricultural sector and water resource management across the country during the critical growing season.

The IMD's updated forecast indicates that October rainfall is also likely to remain below normal levels, extending the period of precipitation deficit. This extended dry spell comes as El Niño conditions are set to peak in November, further influencing weather patterns across the subcontinent.

The below-normal monsoon rains have significant implications for Indian agriculture, which remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon for irrigation and crop cultivation. The rainfall deficit affects reservoir levels, groundwater replenishment, and the overall water availability for irrigation during the crucial kharif and rabi crop cycles.

The convergence of continued October deficits and strengthening El Niño conditions presents a challenging outlook for precipitation across South Asia in the coming weeks. The IMD continues to monitor atmospheric conditions and will provide updated forecasts as weather patterns evolve through the autumn season.