India set to maintain Russian oil imports after Trump sanctions waiver

President Trump issued an executive order on Friday waiving sanctions and tariffs mandated under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, just before a 30-day enforcement deadline expired. The law, signed on September 18, had authorised tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, along with sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet of tankers.

Indian energy analysts expect the waiver to enable the country to sustain crude oil imports from Russia at approximately current levels. The exemption is not limited to India and could also benefit China and other major purchasers of Russian energy resources. The Trump administration has indicated it may reconsider the waiver at a later date.

India remains the world's largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, with imports averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. This significantly exceeds China's imports of 1.2 million barrels daily, according to ship tracking data. Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands round out the top five importers of Russian crude, making their energy security calculations similarly dependent on US policy decisions.

The waiver's timing provides New Delhi with crucial certainty regarding energy procurement as India navigates global oil markets and manages its import bill. Russian oil has become increasingly important to India's energy security following Western sanctions on Moscow, offering a cost-effective alternative to other suppliers.