India-US comprehensive trade deal unlikely in near term, analysts say

Negotiations between India and the United States are unlikely to yield a comprehensive trade agreement in the foreseeable future, with multiple structural obstacles preventing rapid progress toward a major deal. Market observers point to persistent disagreements over market access, agricultural provisions, and India's imports of Russian oil as key impediments to a full trade accord between the two nations.

Instead of a sweeping agreement, analysts suggest that policymakers may pursue a narrower interim arrangement to demonstrate progress and reduce policy uncertainty affecting businesses on both sides. Such a limited pact would likely deliver only modest commercial benefits but could serve as a stepping stone for future negotiations.

The divergence reflects broader tensions in India-US trade relations. New Delhi seeks greater market access for its services and goods exports to the United States, while Washington has pressed for improved access to Indian markets and changes to policies affecting American agricultural exports. India's continued reliance on Russian crude oil, heightened by sanctions and pricing advantages, remains another contentious issue in bilateral discussions.

Market observers note that an interim agreement, while limited in scope, could help both countries maintain momentum in their economic engagement while buying time for more substantive negotiations. Such an approach would allow New Delhi and Washington to address less contentious issues while deferring resolution of the more intractable differences to a later phase.