Indonesia cutting off Singapore's gas? The 60% claim that doesn't add up

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Asia Behind the Headlines episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/p1MLNgrJu4Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>More than 180,000 views. That is how far a single post on X had travelled by Friday morning, after it declared that "60% of Singapore gas consumption is supplied by Indonesia" and told Singaporeans to "prepare for the worst". The post, published on Thursday, turned a cautious remark by an Indonesian minister into a countdown to a blackout. The remark was real. The number was not.</p>

<h2>What Jakarta actually said</h2>

<p>On Wednesday, after a cabinet meeting marking two years of President Prabowo Subianto's government, Indonesia's energy minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, told reporters he was considering not renewing gas export contracts with neighbouring countries. Indonesia, he said, must meet its own domestic needs first. "We are in survival mode," he said, according to the Jakarta Post, citing Kompas.com.</p>

<p>A day later, at the commissioning of gas production facilities, he went further. "I will conduct an evaluation. I will not hesitate to consider stopping exports to countries that do not respect Indonesia," he said, as reported by The Business Times. He did not name any country, in either set of remarks.</p>

<p>That is a warning, framed in conditional language: "considering", "consider". It is not a decision to stop supplies, and no contract has been cancelled.</p>

<h2>Why the 60% figure does not add up</h2>

<p>Singapore's own government has published the numbers. In September last year, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong told Parliament that liquefied natural gas, imported from suppliers around the world through Singapore's LNG terminal, now makes up close to 60% of the country's natural gas supply. He also said that in 2024, no single country accounted for more than 30% of Singapore's gas imports.</p>

<p>So 60% is roughly the share of Singapore's gas that arrives by tanker as LNG, not the share that comes from Indonesia. Whatever Indonesia's exact share is, Singapore's trade ministry says no single supplier was above 30% in 2024.</p>

<p>That does not mean nothing is at stake. Singapore generates about 95% of its electricity from natural gas, according to the Energy Market Authority. Indonesia remains one of its main sources, supplying gas mainly by pipeline, under contracts that expire at the end of 2028. Singapore is building a second LNG terminal to add import capacity, which the government says will be operational by the end of the decade.</p>

<h2>The haze, the history and the next contract</h2>

<p>The timing is not random. Singapore and Malaysia have spent weeks pressing Jakarta over haze from fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, and Singapore has served legal notices on ten Indonesian companies it suspects of contributing to the haze, Eco-Business reports. Bahlil linked his own comments to the president's call to protect Indonesia's natural resources.</p>

<p>It is also not the first time. In 2011, Jakarta floated halting gas exports to Singapore, then clarified that only the supply source, not volumes or prices, would change. And only five months ago, Bahlil himself assured oil and gas producers that gas export quotas would not be cut in 2026, including volumes contracted to overseas buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Our read:</strong> this is leverage, not a shut-off. The viral post took a conditional warning and an outdated sense of dependence and turned them into a crisis. The real deadline is 2028, and the real fight is over the terms of the next contract, in a region where energy, haze and national pride are now tangled together. For Singapore, the lesson of the past decade is diversification. For Indonesia, the question is whether a tougher tone wins better terms, or just makes its gas a harder sell.</p>

<p>When a single number goes viral, check who published it. In this case, the most useful source was Singapore's own Parliament.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://x.com/odjie85/status/2113138054248681805" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X post by @odjie85, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/indonesia-warns-it-could-review-energy-exports-countries-disrespect-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Business Times, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2026/10/22/indonesia-weighs-halt-of-gas-exports-as-nation-enters-survival-mode" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Jakarta Post, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.asiaone.com/asia/bahlil-lahadalia-energy-export-warning-indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AsiaOne, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.eco-business.com/news/indonesia-signals-gas-export-curbs-for-countries-that-do-not-respect-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eco-Business, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.meti.gov.sg/newsroom/oral-reply-to-pq-on-impact-of-indonesias-recalibration-of-lng-trade-on-singapores-energy-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry, oral reply to PQ (DPM Gan Kim Yong), 23 Sep 2025</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.ema.gov.sg/consumer-information/energy-prices-in-singapore-what-you-need-to-know/how-singapores-energy-supply-affects-you" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Energy Market Authority (updated 10 Apr 2026)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://mothership.sg/2026/10/indonesia-threaten-energy-export-stop-disrespect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mothership, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/singapore/2026/10/23/singapores-pipeline-gas-from-indonesia-under-question-as-jakarta-weighs-not-renewing-contracts/240272" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malay Mail, 23 Oct 2026</a></li>

</ul>