JPMorgan flags potential food and fertiliser crisis looming in 2027

JPMorgan has warned of a potential food and fertiliser crisis that could emerge by 2027, citing vulnerabilities in global supply chains centred on the Middle East. The region's dominance in fertiliser production, particularly urea exports which account for roughly 42 per cent of global supply, creates substantial risks if production or shipping routes face prolonged disruption.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint through which much of this fertiliser transits, represents a key vulnerability. Any extended disruption in this region could severely constrain global fertiliser availability and drive prices sharply higher, with cascading effects across agricultural economies worldwide.

For India, which depends heavily on imported fertilisers to support its vast agricultural sector, such a scenario poses significant challenges. The country's farming communities could face reduced fertiliser access at elevated costs, potentially impacting crop yields and food production at a time when global food security remains precarious.

The warning underscores the importance of diversifying fertiliser sourcing, enhancing domestic production capacity, and building strategic reserves to insulate India from external shocks. Policymakers are expected to review supply chain resilience measures as the timeframe outlined in the JPMorgan alert draws closer.