Manila, then Shenzhen: Trump's ASEAN date and the US-China race for November

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/hgbo7w1hfVg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>On Wednesday in Manila, the presidential palace gave a three-word answer on the biggest guest list in Southeast Asia: "It is confirmed." President Donald Trump will attend the 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila next month. The same day, Japan's Joint Staff tracked China's carrier Liaoning sailing between Okinawa and Miyako Island into the Philippine Sea. In the LSN desk's reading, these are two signals in one contest.</p>

<p>Palace press officer Claire Castro confirmed that Trump will attend the summit from 16 to 18 November, with the Philippines chairing ASEAN this year. She gave no itinerary. It would be his first trip to Manila since the ASEAN summit there in 2017. The Philippine Daily Inquirer notes that he also attended last year's summit in Kuala Lumpur and the APEC meeting in South Korea, in a bid to keep American influence in Asia. The Inquirer, citing The New Yorker, quotes a White House official as saying the goal is to demonstrate America's commitment to its allies in Southeast Asia.</p>

<p>UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is also coming. Manila says it expects the East Asia Summit leaders, but is still awaiting official notice of who will attend.</p>

<h2>Manila, then Shenzhen</h2>

<p>The calendar is the story. According to the Inquirer, after the Manila summit, leaders fly to Shenzhen, China, for the APEC leaders' meeting on 18 and 19 November, hosted by Beijing. President Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin have yet to confirm Manila. Marcos had hoped Xi would visit in November, when talks on a South China Sea Code of Conduct are set to be finalised. That code has been pending since a non-binding declaration in 2002. Last week in Singapore, Marcos said there is good progress, but complained that just the definitions of ordinary words are becoming bones of contention.</p>

<p>Washington brings its own offer. The Inquirer reports that it is uncertain whether Manila and Washington will sign the framework for Pax Silica, a US-led coalition on critical minerals, chips and AI supply chains, during the visit. Manila has set aside a 1,620-hectare site at New Clark City for an AI and advanced manufacturing hub, with signing expected before the end of the year. Critics warn about water, power and the possible displacement of farmers and Aeta communities.</p>

<p>There is also an irritant, as the Inquirer notes: after Marcos met Trump at the White House in July last year, the US imposed a 19 percent tariff on Philippine goods.</p>

<h2>The carrier signal</h2>

<p>According to Japan's Joint Staff, as reported by USNI News, the Liaoning group, with two cruisers and a destroyer, was spotted about 155 miles south of Ishigaki Island, launching and recovering aircraft. Japan sent a destroyer and patrol aircraft to watch, and scrambled fighters. China's navy called it routine annual training, not directed against any specific country or target. It is the Liaoning's second deployment this year.</p>

<p>The deployment comes five days before Japan and the United States begin Keen Sword 27, which runs from 19 to 29 October. US Marines plan to deploy anti-ship missile systems to Ishigaki and Yonaguni for the drill.</p>

<h2>Scorecard and verdict</h2>

<p>On summit presence, Washington is ahead for now: Trump is confirmed for Manila, Xi is not. On the economic calendar, Beijing holds the stronger card, hosting APEC straight after ASEAN, while Washington's Pax Silica offer sits beside a 19 percent tariff. On hard power at sea, the contest is open: China is showing carrier reach past Japan's islands, and the US-Japan alliance answers with Keen Sword along the same island chain. On rules, ASEAN is behind: a binding code of conduct is still unfinished, decades after the first declaration.</p>

<p>Power Play Asia's verdict: November is not one summit, it is a relay. Manila comes first, then Shenzhen, with many of the same leaders in two cities inside four days. Trump's confirmation buys Washington a front-row seat, but presence is not a strategy. If Manila ends with no code text, no Pax Silica deal and no tariff relief, Beijing will host the second act with the stronger hand.</p>

<p>Watch three things: whether Xi confirms Manila, whether the code text moves, and whether the Liaoning is still at sea when Keen Sword begins.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/15/news/trump-guterres-to-attend-asean-summit-in-manila/2445858" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times, 15 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/14/news/trump-guterres-to-attend-49th-asean-summit-in-nov-in-manila/2445275" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times, 14 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://interaksyon.philstar.com/politics-issues/2026/10/15/320549/trump-visit-manila-november-asean-summit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters via Interaksyon/Philstar, 15 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/342080/trump-in-ph-next-month-for-asean-summit-palace" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philippine Daily Inquirer, 15 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202512/12/content_WS693c1432c6d00ca5f9a080e6.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Government of China (english.gov.cn), Dec 2025</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/10/09/2561936/marcos-optimistic-binding-scs-code-conduct" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star, 9 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://news.usni.org/2026/10/14/chinese-carrier-strike-group-drills-in-the-philippine-sea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USNI News, 14 Oct 2026 (citing Japan Joint Staff Office and PLAN release)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.city.fussa.tokyo.jp/municipal/yokotabase/new/1021151/1021790.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fussa City official notice</a></li>

<li><a href="https://news.usni.org/2026/10/06/u-s-japanese-forces-to-rehearse-defense-of-japans-southwest-islands" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USNI News, 6 Oct 2026</a></li>

</ul>