Missiles, not talks: Kim's answer to Seoul

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Asia Unfiltered episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/ZLOkLSgdz5g" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>Six days after Seoul offered military talks, Pyongyang sent its reply. On Thursday 29 October, North Korea fired about ten short-range ballistic missiles into the sea off its east coast, raising the question of whether the Korean peninsula is entering a dangerous new phase or whether the launch is a calculated message aimed far beyond Seoul.</p><h2>What happened</h2><p>South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff say the missiles were launched at around 12:30pm from the Wonsan area and flew about 250 kilometres. Japan's defence ministry said a ballistic missile fell outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. Tokyo lodged a stern protest through North Korea's embassy in Beijing, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said: "Japan can never tolerate nuclear and missile development by North Korea that threatens the peace and security of our country and the international community."</p><p>In Seoul, the presidential national security office held an emergency meeting, called the launch a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and urged Pyongyang to stop immediately. The weapons were reportedly North Korea's 600-millimetre super-large rocket launchers; South Korean and American officials are still analysing the data. It was North Korea's first ballistic launch in 17 days. On 12 October, some of its missiles flew more than 900 kilometres.</p><h2>Why the timing matters</h2><p>On 21 September, a land mine blast inside the Demilitarized Zone injured three South Korean soldiers. South Korea and the United Nations Command concluded the mines were North Korean, planted south of the border line. Pyongyang denies it, and in a letter to the Security Council its envoy Kim Song called Seoul's claims a "farce to evade the responsibility" for rising tensions.</p><p>On 22 October, Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned that propaganda loudspeakers aimed at the South would be on standby "in a matter of days." On Thursday morning, residents of the border city of Paju told Yonhap they heard low-volume broadcasts from the North, although South Korea's military said it detected none along front-line units.</p><p>On 23 October, Seoul formally proposed military talks to jointly verify the land border, restore military hotlines and prevent accidental clashes. Deputy Defence Minister Kim Hong-cheol put the problem plainly: "Different perceptions remain over the Military Demarcation Line." Yonhap reports that of the 1,292 marker posts installed under the armistice, only about 200 can still be identified. Yonhap calls Thursday's barrage an apparent cold rebuff to that offer.</p><h2>Beijing's careful response, Washington's mixed signals</h2><p>Five days earlier, Kim Jong Un made a surprise trip to the Chinese border city of Dandong, where he met Wang Huning, a member of China's top leadership, though not President Xi Jinping. On Thursday, foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said: "We have noted that relevant parties hold differing views on how to classify the projectiles," and urged them to keep to a political settlement and work for regional peace and stability. The Asia Business Daily in Seoul notes it is the first time in nine months that Beijing has used that peace and stability language after a North Korean launch. That is a nudge toward calm, not a rebuke.</p><p>Washington is sending mixed signals. On 12 October, President Donald Trump said he "may" meet Kim during his trip to Asia next month, which is expected to include the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November. No meeting has been scheduled. Meanwhile, the annual South Korea and United States security talks have been pushed to early next year, which Yonhap says is the first time since 1998 that they will be held after the turn of the year. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also arrived in Seoul on Thursday to close his Asia tour.</p><h2>The verdict</h2><p>This is calibrated pressure, not a march to war. Pyongyang wants to set the agenda before any summit, keep Seoul on the sidelines and turn the border row into leverage. Seoul's offer of talks is the right move, but it must come with steady deterrence and close coordination with Washington and Tokyo. The real danger is not a planned war. It is an accident on a border nobody agrees on.</p><p>What to watch next: whether the loudspeakers go to full volume, whether Pyongyang answers Seoul's offer, and whether a Trump-Kim meeting appears on the calendar before Shenzhen.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

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