Modi, Putin to address surging India-Russia trade imbalance at SCO meet

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to hold bilateral talks during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, with the expanding trade gap between the two nations expected to dominate discussions. Despite robust growth in overall commerce—surging from $13 billion in 2021 to $60 billion in 2025—the relationship has become increasingly asymmetrical, with Russian exports significantly outpacing Indian purchases.

The trade deficit, which stood at $6.6 billion four years ago, has ballooned to over $50 billion in Russia's favor. This dramatic shift reflects India's increased dependence on Russian energy supplies, particularly crude oil and petroleum products, following international sanctions on Moscow over its military operations in Ukraine.

Indian policymakers have grown concerned about the sustainability of such a lopsided trade relationship, which leaves New Delhi vulnerable to external supply shocks while limiting opportunities for Indian exporters to access the Russian market. The imbalance has become a key focus area for bilateral economic management between the two nations.

The SCO summit provides an opportunity for both leaders to explore mechanisms to rebalance trade flows, including potential expansion of Indian exports in pharmaceuticals, information technology, and agricultural products to Russia. Officials from both sides are likely to discuss strategies to diversify the trade basket and create conditions for a more equitable economic partnership moving forward.