Paytm gains on analyst optimism; stock rallies 90% from March lows

Paytm's equity gained ground in a subdued market on the back of positive analyst commentary, with shares climbing 4 per cent as investors responded to upgraded earnings projections from Jefferies. The brokerage lifted its profit estimates for fiscal years 2028-29 by 20-25 per cent, factoring in enhanced revenue from a 25 basis point merchant discount rate (MDR) on Unified Payments Interface transactions.

The analyst revision reflects growing confidence in Paytm's ability to monetize its dominant position in India's UPI ecosystem. The brokerage correspondingly raised its 12-month price target to ₹2,100 per share from ₹1,600, signalling sustained upside potential for the digital payments platform.

The stock's performance underscores a broader recovery in Paytm's market valuation following a challenging period. From its March lows, the fintech company's shares have surged approximately 90 per cent, recovering ground as investor concerns about regulatory risks and business model sustainability have eased.

Paytm has emerged as a key beneficiary of India's accelerating digital payments adoption, particularly through its dominant share of UPI transaction volumes. Enhanced monetization of this user base through improved merchant economics could materially strengthen its path to sustained profitability, underpinning the analyst community's renewed optimism around the company's growth trajectory.