Philippines braces for prolonged very strong El Niño through mid-2027

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) forecast that a very strong El Niño will likely emerge in the latter months of 2026, marking one of the strongest such events in recent years. According to Ana Liza Solis, chief of Pagasa's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, the agency's climate models indicate the phenomenon could extend well into the first half of 2027, creating an unusually prolonged period of warmer-than-normal conditions across the archipelago.

El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, typically brings drier conditions to the Philippines during the affected months. The anticipated very strong intensity of the next event raises concerns about potential impacts on water resources, crop production, and energy consumption across the nation.

The extended forecast provides government agencies and the private sector with advance notice to prepare contingency plans for possible drought conditions and elevated temperatures. Agriculture officials and water resource managers are expected to coordinate response strategies to mitigate potential disruptions to food security and water supply throughout the expected duration of the El Niño event.