Prabowo's free-meals test: allies break ranks

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Asia Unfiltered episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/MP4D6A3zqxk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>For two years, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has governed with almost no opposition at all. His coalition holds about 80% of the seats in parliament, and not one government bill has drawn a dissenting vote. Now, for the first time, some allies are stepping back, and the issue is lunch. Is this the start of a revolt, or a coalition protecting itself?</p>

<p>On Thursday, 22 October, Reuters reported that two parties in Prabowo's ruling coalition have decided, after internal deliberations, to distance themselves from his flagship free nutritious meals programme. Senior members of both spoke anonymously, fearing repercussions. A member of a third coalition party said problems with the scheme could hurt its chances at the ballot box. According to Reuters, the three parties together represent more than a quarter of the coalition's majority. One member put it bluntly: "Loyalty must also have limits."</p>

<p>Not everyone is moving. Prabowo's own party, Gerindra, says the coalition remains strong. Its spokesperson, Sugiat Santoso, told Reuters the programme is not about electoral gain, and that the agency running it is working to improve it. The National Mandate Party (PAN) says it remains committed, and that any shortcomings should be fixed "systematically and collectively".</p>

<h2>Why now: safety, cost and the polls</h2>

<p>Free nutritious meals were the centrepiece of Prabowo's 2024 campaign, with a promise to reach 83 million children and pregnant women. The scheme began in January 2025, and CNA reports it now reaches more than 57 million people. But Reuters counts at least 57,000 cases of food poisoning since launch, including about 1,700 people who fell ill in four separate incidents in early September. In June, authorities arrested a former chief of the programme and two other officials on corruption charges.</p>

<p>Then there is the cost. CNA reports that at least US$15 billion has been set aside for the scheme in next year's budget, at a time when Indonesia's deficit is capped by law at 3% of GDP, and some lawmakers want that ceiling reviewed.</p>

<p>And then there are the polls. According to Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), Prabowo's approval stood at 81% last November. It fell to 51% in July, and to 44.5% this month. Positive views of the free meals programme slid from 62% to just over a third. On Tuesday, as Prabowo marked two years in office, students protested in Jakarta, Yogyakarta and Bandung over the cost of living, the forest fires and civil liberties, the Jakarta Post reported.</p>

<p>The president has dug in. In February, he called the poisoning cases statistically insignificant, saying "99.99 per cent of the programme can be considered successful." His vice president, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, has taken a softer line, publicly apologising and visiting affected children.</p>

<h2>Why it matters beyond Indonesia</h2>

<p>Indonesia is Southeast Asia's largest economy, and its markets are already under strain. On 16 October, its stocks suffered their steepest one-day fall in nearly three decades, after index provider MSCI raised the prospect of stripping the country of its emerging market status. When a government spends heavily, and its own allies start questioning the biggest line item, investors across the region notice.</p>

<p>There is also an Asian lesson. In July 2013, 23 children died in the Indian state of Bihar after a school lunch cooked with oil contaminated by a pesticide. India's school meal scheme survived, but the tragedy showed that, at this scale, food safety is not a detail. It is the whole programme.</p>

<h2>The Unfiltered verdict</h2>

<p>This is not a rebellion. The parties are anonymous, one has told its lawmakers to use "polite language", and none has said it is leaving the government. It is a hedge, with the 2029 election in mind. But it is a healthy one. Feeding children is a sound goal. The failure is in delivery: a universal scheme that grew faster than anyone could keep its kitchens safe. Burhanuddin Muhtadi of Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute says a more targeted programme would be easier to manage. We agree. Prabowo should treat his allies' warning as feedback, not disloyalty. Fix the kitchens, publish the audits, and target the money. A super-majority that never says no is not strength. It is a blind spot.</p>

<p>What to watch: whether either party goes public by name, whether the government narrows the programme before next year's budget is spent, and whether the next poll shows the slide has stopped.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesian-presidents-allies-distance-themselves-flagship-free-meals-programme-6481906" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters via CNA, 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/10/22/indonesian-president039s-allies-distance-themselves-from-flagship-free-meals-programme" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Star (Reuters), 22 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-president-prabowo-subianto-2-years-in-office-economic-gains-challenges-6474906" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA, 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2026/10/21/growing-discontent-spills-into-streets-as-prabowo-marks-two-years-in-office" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Jakarta Post, 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2026/10/23/prabowos-allies-distance-themselves-from-flagship-free-meals-program" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Jakarta Post, 23 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/world/police-arrest-school-principal-in-bihar-mid-day-meal-poisoning-case-idUSDEE96N08D/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters, 2013 (Bihar mid-day meal case)</a></li>

</ul>