Quad's Manila comeback: deliverables or a photo-op?

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/bGWOpyy3o6A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>Four leaders, one table, and a two-year gap. On Tuesday, 20 October, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the leaders of the Quad, the United States, Japan, India and Australia, will meet in Manila next month, on the margins of the ASEAN summit on 16 and 17 November. The real question is not whether they meet. It is whether they bring anything back.</p>

<p>Speaking to Network 18 during his visit to India, Rubio said: "We're going to do it in Manila at the ASEAN conference. We don't have the specific date yet, but that's going to happen and we're very enthusiastic about it." He promised more than a photo. Leaders, he said, will "actually announce concrete actions, not just simply a nice social gathering."</p>

<p>That matters, because the leaders' track has been frozen. The last Quad leaders' summit was hosted by Joe Biden in Wilmington in September 2024. It was India's turn to host in 2025, but, as the Hindustan Times reports, the meeting never happened because there was no clarity on a visit by President Donald Trump. The same paper reports that Quad foreign ministers are expected to meet again on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta at the end of this month.</p>

<h2>The pressure behind the revival</h2>

<p>Why the revival now? Our reading: China's supply-chain leverage has made the Quad's slow, technical agenda suddenly urgent.</p>

<p>Look at Japan. The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that Japan could run short of yttrium, a heat-resistant rare earth used in jet-engine coatings and chipmaking equipment, within months. One Japanese official told the paper: "The timeline is not years, it's months." Outside China, yttrium oxide costs about $1,150 a kilogram, according to Argus assessments cited by the paper. Inside China, it costs about $9. Tokyo has asked Washington and major American companies for help.</p>

<p>India has its own exposure. On Monday, Beijing announced licensing for exports of tunnel boring machines to countries that have disputes with China. The measure names no country, but The Hindu reports that India depends on imported machines for metros, rail corridors and border-area tunnels.</p>

<p>And the Quad already has tools on paper. In May, in New Delhi, the four foreign ministers launched a critical minerals framework aiming to mobilise up to $20 billion in government and private support, plus a maritime surveillance initiative starting in the Indian Ocean. Beijing's response then was that it does not support exclusive "small circles" or bloc confrontation.</p>

<h2>India's side of the bargain, and the Shenzhen shadow</h2>

<p>In Mumbai on Tuesday, Rubio met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, called India a "refining superpower", and pressed for more Indian purchases of American energy, technology and defence systems. On trade, he said: "We're very, very close." He also plans to visit the Reliance refinery at Jamnagar to discuss bringing in more Venezuelan oil. The Hindu notes that the visit comes amid friction over American moves on H-1B visas and threatened sanctions over India's Russian oil purchases, sanctions since held off. Our reading: for New Delhi, the Quad is worth most when it is not a bill for buying American.</p>

<p>Then there is the Shenzhen shadow. On Monday, Trump said he would be willing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November, to talk about nuclear weapons and denuclearisation. The Kremlin says no substantive proposals have been discussed, and Beijing says it has no information. But the calendar is striking: the Quad in Manila, then possibly Xi and Putin in Shenzhen, within days.</p>

<h2>The scorecard and our verdict</h2>

<p>On signal, the Quad scores: a leaders' meeting ends a two-year drought. On substance, it is unproven: $20 billion is a target, not a cheque. On India, the answer is hedged: New Delhi wants the Quad, but on its own terms. And on China, Beijing is watching: talks in Shenzhen could cool Washington's appetite for open confrontation.</p>

<p>Our verdict: the Quad is back on the calendar, but not yet back in business. If Manila produces real minerals deals, real ships tracked and real money moved, it becomes Asia's answer to supply-chain coercion. If it produces only a family photo before Shenzhen, Beijing will read it exactly that way. Watch three things: whether a date is fixed, whether the yttrium squeeze eases, and whether the US-India trade deal is signed before Manila.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-albanese-to-meet-for-revived-security-alliance-20261021-p617da" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian Financial Review (Jessica Gardner), 21 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/us/article/3371558/first-quad-leaders-summit-after-two-years-manila-next-month-rubio-confirms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;on the margins of the ASEAN summit, scheduled for Manila on November 16 and 17.&quot; Also SCMP (Nayan Seth), 20 Oct 2026 17:13 UTC</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/quad-nations-to-meet-in-the-philippines-marco-rubio-says-may-lead-to-concrete-deliverables-101792521523678.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hindustan Times (Rezaul H Laskar), 21 Oct 2026 07:20 IST</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/quad-exploring-leaders-meet-on-margins-of-asean-101792175797092.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HT, 21 Oct — &quot;another gathering of the four ministers will be held on the margins of the G20 foreign ministers&#x27; meeting in Atlanta later this month.&quot; HT, 17-18 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ebd3244a-9120-4773-b55f-41df77f60c93" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times, 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/japan-nears-rare-earth-shortage-135934672.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">read via) Newsmax on Yahoo Finance, 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261020116800009" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;The heat-resistant metal is used in protective coatings for engines and equipment used to manufacture chips.&quot; Yonhap, 20 Oct 2026 15:21 KST</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2026/art_9ce34ccfa6c040d7a4f7622f89133be5.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MOFCOM/GAC Announcement 2026 No. 50, 19 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/china-to-require-permits-for-key-drone-exports-restrict-machinery-sales-to-sensitive-destinations/4093222" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anadolu, 19 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-imposes-export-controls-on-tunnel-boring-machines-sought-by-india-citing-national-security/article71602536.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hindu, 19 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/05/quad-critical-minerals-initiative-framework-among-the-united-states-japan-australia-and-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US State Dept, 26 May 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://in.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-from-the-quad-foreign-ministers-meeting-in-new-delhi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joint Statement, US Embassy India, 26 May 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1361964.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Times, 26 May 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/marco-rubio-oil-purchases-india-mumbai-october-20-2026/article71604269.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hindu, 21 Oct 2026 03:57 IST</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-rubios-meeting-with-indian-external-affairs-minister-jaishankar-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;tension in India-U.S. ties due to several issues, including the U.S.&#x27;s recent moves to stop H-1B visas, threatened sanctions (that have since been held off) over India&#x27;s import of Russian oil&quot;. US State Dept readout, 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-the-press-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;advocated for the increased purchase of U.S. technologies and systems&quot;. State Dept remarks, 20 Oct</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/20/trump-says-hes-ready-to-meet-putin-and-xi-in-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Euronews (with AP), 20 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/10/19/trump-summit-xi-putin-denuclearization-ukraine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&quot;APEC ... summit in the Chinese city of Shenzhen on 18-19 November&quot;. Also Axios, 19 Oct</a></li>

</ul>