Business · India Bureau
RBI poised to begin fresh rate-hike cycle, says analyst
Even as geopolitical tensions persist in West Asia, monetary policy experts anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will maintain its hawkish stance. An analyst said rate cuts are unlikely in the near term regardless of how regional conflicts evolve.
LSN India ·
The Reserve Bank of India appears to be signalling the beginning of a new interest rate-hiking cycle, according to monetary policy observers tracking the central bank's recent decisions and communications.
Ambareesh Baliga, a closely-watched analyst of RBI policy, said he does not anticipate a shift toward rate easing even if geopolitical tensions in West Asia are resolved. The analyst's assessment suggests the central bank's focus remains on controlling inflation and supporting currency stability, overriding concerns about regional conflicts.
However, Baliga cautioned that if the West Asia situation remains unresolved, further rate increases by the RBI are likely in the coming months. This conditional outlook reflects the central bank's dual challenge of managing domestic inflation pressures while monitoring external economic shocks that could impact India's growth trajectory.
The analyst's views align with signals from RBI leadership, which has maintained a cautious approach to monetary easing despite global economic uncertainty. Market participants are closely watching for clues about the trajectory of benchmark lending rates, which influence everything from mortgage costs to business investment across the economy.