Politics · World News Bureau

Seventy percent agreed: Manila's unfinished sea code

Manila says about 70 percent of a South China Sea code of conduct is now agreed, but diplomats told the Associated Press the talks will not be finished this year. With the ASEAN summit opening in Manila on Sunday, 15 November, the remaining third is still the argument that has stalled the process for years.

LSN World News · 12 November 2026

Seventy percent agreed: Manila's unfinished sea code

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/-B2Diy5hIsE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>Manila says about 70 percent of a South China Sea code of conduct is now agreed. Diplomats told the Associated Press the talks will not be finished this year anyway. With the ASEAN summit opening on Sunday, is that progress, or a talking point?</p>

<h2>The number</h2>

<p>On Thursday, Dominic Xavier Imperial, a deputy secretary at the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs and the country's ASEAN spokesperson, told ANC's Headstart that "70 percent of the COC package has already been agreed." "I think during the Philippines chairmanship, we can say that that is already good progress when it comes to the COC negotiations," he said, in remarks reported by The Philippine Star. He would not say whether the code would be concluded before Manila's chairship ends in December. "I cannot really pre-empt how the COC negotiators will conclude this year," he said. The target of finishing in 2026 was set in 2023, when ASEAN and Chinese foreign ministers agreed to wrap up the talks within three years. In July, Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said both sides had the political will to finish by year-end.</p>

<h2>The remaining third</h2>

<p>Imperial declined to describe what sits in the other 30 percent, saying only that it "still covers some of the milestone issues that were discussed in previous meetings" and "very specific items in each paragraph of the agreement." Lazaro said in June that four core issues were still unresolved: whether the agreement will be legally binding, its geographic scope, its relationship to the 2002 declaration, and its terms of reference. ASEAN has long pressed for a binding code. China objects. The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea is not binding, and The Philippine Star notes that it has largely failed to prevent tensions at sea. Imperial said the code "should be able to dictate the behaviour of all parties in the South China Sea," and should "respect the rights of third parties and not just those negotiating the COC."</p>

<p>China claims nearly all of the waterway, overlapping claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. A 2016 arbitral ruling, in a case brought by Manila, found that Beijing's expansive claims had no legal basis. China has never recognised that ruling. Confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels have continued this year, including at Scarborough Shoal and Ayungin Shoal.</p>

<h2>The summit</h2>

<p>ASEAN leaders meet in Manila from Sunday, 15 November, for the final summit of the Philippines' year as chair. On Wednesday, three regional diplomats told the Associated Press that China and ASEAN would not be able to conclude the talks this year, as they had agreed. A Southeast Asian diplomat involved in summit preparations told AFP he did not see any agreement being reached in Manila. If the text is not finished by December, The Philippine Star reports, negotiations would continue next year when Singapore takes the chair.</p>

<p>Imperial said relations between Manila and Beijing will not be the focus of the ASEAN summit itself, and that Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the ASEAN-China Summit. The Philippine Star reported on Wednesday that President Xi Jinping is not expected in Manila, and that US President Donald Trump will attend the ASEAN-United States special summit on 17 November, before travelling to the APEC meetings in Shenzhen. Myanmar will be represented only at official level, by a foreign ministry director-general, The Philippine Star reports. In an interview with NHK, Lazaro said there is no consensus on letting Myanmar fully back in, and that members first want to see progress on the bloc's five-point peace plan.</p>

<h2>The scorecard</h2>

<p>Manila can put a number on the table: 70 percent. That is more than a blank page, and it is what a chair wants to show at the end of a difficult year. Beijing can accept the percentage and still hold the points that matter: a code that is not binding, a map that is not settled, and no penalties that bite.</p>

<p><strong>Our read:</strong> 70 percent agreed is not 70 percent done. The remaining third is not a drafting leftover. It is the argument that has stalled this process for years: will the code bind anyone, and over what water? A summit statement can praise progress. It cannot invent a rule China has already said it does not want.</p>

<p>Watch what, if anything, the leaders say in Manila, and whether December produces a text or only another deadline. Until the remaining third is settled, the percentage is a briefing line, not a code of conduct. The ships will still be on the water.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/11/12/2569677/south-china-sea-code-70-agreed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star, 12 Nov</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/11/11/2569423/manila-host-world-leaders-49th-asean-summit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star, 11 Nov</a></li>

</ul>