Super El Niño could trigger 15,800 heat deaths in India, study warns

The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago released a report this week outlining the potential human health toll from the strengthening El Niño pattern, with India among the nations facing elevated risk. According to the research, the climate event could push global land temperatures approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal levels in the coming months—a temperature spike comparable to what climate models project for the next two decades under continued warming trends.

Emily Grover-Kopec, one of the study's co-authors, explained to PTI that the analysis relied on two primary components: seasonal temperature forecasts and established relationships between temperature fluctuations and mortality rates. The researchers utilized forecasting data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5), described as one of the most widely cited seasonal prediction models in the scientific community.

Grover-Kopec noted that when comparing multiple seasonal forecast models available to researchers, the ECMWF SEAS5 projection occupies a middle position regarding projected temperature anomalies, suggesting the estimate represents a measured assessment rather than an outlier prediction. The study underscores growing concerns about the compounding effects of natural climate variability and long-term warming patterns on public health outcomes across South Asia, where heat-related mortality remains a significant public health challenge.