Super El Niño risk exceeds 90%, could match devastating 1997-98 event

The probability of a super El Niño developing has surpassed 90%, according to findings from the Malaysia Meteorological Department, raising concerns about potential severe weather impacts across the region.

Meteorologists have confirmed that El Niño intensity is strengthening progressively, with current projections indicating the phenomenon will reach its peak towards the end of 2026. The escalating conditions have prompted comparisons to the exceptionally powerful 1997-98 El Niño event, which triggered widespread drought, flooding, and air quality crises across Southeast Asia and beyond.

A super El Niño episode represents one of the most severe manifestations of the climate pattern, characterized by substantially warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures. Such events typically disrupt normal weather patterns across Asia, affecting monsoon cycles and increasing the risk of extreme weather conditions.

The Malaysia Meteorological Department's assessment comes as regional governments and disaster management agencies begin reviewing preparedness measures. Authorities are expected to issue detailed impact forecasts and mitigation strategies as the phenomenon develops over the coming months.