Politics · World News Bureau
Taiwan before Shenzhen: Beijing squeezes, Washington shifts
China flew a record 49 military aircraft around Taiwan as Americans voted, while Democrats took control of Congress and a $14 billion Taiwan arms package stays frozen ahead of Trump's expected meeting with Xi in Shenzhen.
LSN World News ·
<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/irtkszsgmXE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>
<p>While Americans were voting in Tuesday's midterm elections, Taiwan was counting Chinese aircraft. In the 24 hours to 6am on Tuesday, Taiwan's defence ministry tracked 49 Chinese military aircraft around the island, the highest single-day total recorded so far this year. By Wednesday, Democrats had won control of both houses of the US Congress. With President Donald Trump weakened at home and a summit with Xi Jinping ahead in Shenzhen, the question for Asia is whether Beijing is testing Taiwan, or testing Washington.</p>
<h2>A record day, and two carriers at sea</h2>
<p>According to Taiwan's defence ministry, the 49 aircraft were joined by six Chinese navy ships and six official ships, and 31 of the aircraft entered Taiwan's central, southwestern and eastern air defence identification zones. Taiwan answered with patrol aircraft, navy ships and coastal missile systems. Wednesday's count was lower, at 22 aircraft, seven navy ships and five official ships, Taiwan News reported.</p>
<p>The pressure reaches well beyond the Taiwan Strait. Joseph Wu, secretary-general of Taiwan's National Security Council, said China had deployed more than 100 navy and coast guard vessels across the Western Pacific as of Tuesday. He called China a "big bully" and wrote: "We won't provoke, but we won't bow to any pressure." Taiwan Security Monitor, cited by Taiwan News, said two Chinese aircraft carriers were operating at the same time, the Liaoning in the Philippine Sea and the Fujian in the South China Sea.</p>
<h2>The grey zone widens</h2>
<p>Far to the southwest lies Pratas, a tiny Taiwan-held atoll more than 400 kilometres from Taiwan's main island and about 260 kilometres from the Chinese mainland. Radio Free Asia reports that on Saturday a Chinese coast guard ship entered a restricted area near the atoll. Taipei called it harassment and said it was the 13th such incursion near Pratas this year; Beijing called it a "routine law enforcement patrol". Benjamin Blandin, a maritime security expert, told Radio Free Asia that "China could achieve significant strategic benefits without imposing a complete blockade or forcing an immediate Taiwanese withdrawal."</p>
<p>There is another layer below the surface. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, citing the analysis firm ingeniSPACE, reported on Sunday that four Chinese research vessels have repeatedly slowed, stopped and changed course near Taiwan since May, in areas that overlap undersea cable routes. The firm said similar activity has been observed near Japan and the Philippines.</p>
<p>In LSN's reading, none of this is an invasion, and none of it is meant to be. It is pressure measured in sorties, patrols and cable maps, each one small enough to deny and together large enough to notice.</p>
<h2>The Washington factor</h2>
<p>Democrats now hold the Senate, the Associated Press projects, and CBS News and NBC News project they have won the House. That matters for Taiwan because of one package: Trump has still not approved a $14 billion arms sale for Taiwan, which he put on hold after meeting Xi in May and later described as a bargaining chip. Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told Chinese media the midterms are unlikely to deliver a "disruptive" shock to ties, the South China Morning Post reports. But he flagged Taiwan as the variable, saying lawmakers from both parties may push harder on the delayed arms sales.</p>
<p>Tokyo is watching closely. Japan's foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, said before the vote that "regardless of the election results, a strong U.S.-Japan alliance is essential". But a Japanese official told Reuters, as reported by Aju Press: "Now more than ever, we need to communicate our stance to the U.S." Trump is expected to travel to Shenzhen for the APEC summit later this month for his third meeting of the year with Xi, according to the South China Morning Post.</p>
<p>On LSN's scorecard, the pressure on Taiwan is an edge for Beijing, with a record day and two carriers at sea. Taipei's resolve is holding, with jets, ships and missile batteries answering every wave. Washington's signal is mixed: a new Congress on one side, an arms package still frozen on the other. Tokyo is the most exposed, an ally that depends on a president who now has less room at home.</p>
<p>Our verdict: Beijing is not testing Taiwan's defences so much as Washington's attention. A weakened president heading to Shenzhen has more reason to trade and less reason to pick a fight. The real test comes after Shenzhen. If the arms package moves, Taipei has its answer. If it stays frozen while the sorties climb, Beijing will read that as a green light, and so will every capital in the first island chain.</p>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/PLAAct/88121" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, 3 Nov 2026, "PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.taiwanplus.com/news/taiwan-news/military/261103008/chinese-military-sorties-around-taiwan-hit-single-day-high-for-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TaiwanPlus, 3 Nov 2026, "Chinese Military Sorties Around Taiwan Hit Single-Day High for 2026"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6470873" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Taiwan News, 3 Nov 2026, "Taiwan tracks 49 Chinese military aircraft and 12 ships"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6471672" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Taiwan News, 4 Nov 2026, "Taiwan says China deploys over 100 navy, coast guard vessels in Western Pacific"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/southchinasea/2026/11/03/taiwan-pratas-south-china-sea/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Radio Free Asia (Taejun Kang), 2 Nov 2026, "Analysts: China could erode Taiwan's hold on remote Pratas Island without invasion"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.zaobao.com.sg/en/news/china/chinese-research-vessels-unusual-taiwan-strait-activity-may-involve-mapping-undersea-cables-japanese" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lianhe Zaobao, 3 Nov 2026, "Chinese research vessels' unusual Taiwan Strait activity may involve mapping undersea cables: Japanese media" (Yomiuri Shimbun, 1 Nov)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/03/midterm-election-results-live-updates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Guardian live (citing AP), 3-4 Nov 2026, "Democrats win Senate control and edge toward House victory"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBS News, 4 Nov 2026, "2026 House election live results as Democrats win House majority"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/house-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBC News, 4 Nov 2026, "2026 House Results: Democrats Win Control"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm4g1j0n92qdo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BBC, 4 Nov 2026, "Story of US 2026 midterm elections in maps and charts"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3373194/will-us-midterm-results-lead-disruption-washingtons-ties-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South China Morning Post (Orange Wang), 4 Nov 2026, "Will US midterm results lead to disruption in Washington's ties with China?"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://udn.com/news/story/6809/9856404" target="_blank" rel="noopener">United Daily News (citing SCMP / The Paper), 4 Nov 2026, "川普期中敗選對台灣有利？陸專家：美國會或施壓加速對台軍售"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.ajupress.com/view/20261104123670907" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aju Press (citing Asahi, Reuters), 4 Nov 2026, "Japan Watches U.S. Midterm Elections Amid Concerns Over Trump's Foreign Policy"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://dominotheory.com/14-billion-arms-sale-still-on-hold-as-trump-and-xi-look-to-apec/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Domino Theory, Oct 2026, "$14 Billion Arms Sale Still on Hold as Trump and Xi Look to APEC"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20261102/quad-not-anti-china-says-rubio-as-first-summit-in-two-years-set-before-trump-xi-talks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Korea Times (South China Morning Post), 2 Nov 2026, "Quad not 'anti-China', says Rubio as first summit in two years set before Trump-Xi talks"</a></li>
</ul>