Tamil Nadu bypolls to test AIADMK's grip on Scheduled Caste voters

The bypolls in Madurantakam and Dharapuram constituencies assume significance as both seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes, a demographic that has historically been a core support base for the AIADMK. The contests will provide early insights into whether the party can arrest the sharp decline in its backing among this crucial voter segment.

The party's performance among SC voters has nosedived over the past decade. In the 2016 Assembly elections, the AIADMK secured 32 of the 44 reserved SC seats across Tamil Nadu, demonstrating commanding influence in these constituencies. However, by the 2026 elections held ten years later, this tally collapsed to just eight seats, signalling a dramatic erosion of the party's traditional support base.

The reversal reflects broader shifts in Tamil Nadu's electoral landscape, with other parties making significant inroads into constituencies where the AIADMK once held sway. The bypolls will test whether this decline represents a permanent realignment or a temporary setback from which the party can recover.

Both constituencies have historically reflected broader voting patterns in SC-reserved seats across the state, making the results a useful indicator of the AIADMK's current standing among this important voter group. Political analysts will closely watch the turnout, campaign messaging, and ground-level support to gauge the party's prospects in future elections.