Trump's Russia oil waiver: India and China off the hook, for now

<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/IzzWAOM8ZNU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>

<p>Sunday, 18 October, was meant to be the day America's toughest Russia law reached Asia. From today, the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas faced a 100% tariff on their exports to the United States if they kept buying, and China and India top that list. Then, late on Friday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order that imposed the tariffs on paper and waived them in the same document. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits down with India's External Affairs Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, in Mumbai.</p>

<h2>The tariff that never landed</h2>

<p>The law is the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which Trump signed on 18 September. Friday's order sets out its teeth: a 500% increase in duties on Russian goods, and a 100% increase on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas if they knowingly make new purchases from 18 October.</p>

<p>Section four of the order then waives all of those duties, and many of the law's sanctions, until the President or the Secretary of State determine that further action is appropriate. Trump certified to Congress that the waiver is in the national interests of the United States, while the US Trade Representative keeps monitoring who buys Russian energy.</p>

<p>Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, called the suspension "an important and truly historic moment." Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, called it "unfortunate."</p>

<h2>Why Washington blinked</h2>

<p>Oil prices are still high after the Iran war, and American voters go to the polls in next month's midterm elections. The Indian Express notes that a sharp cut in Russian crude flows would have pushed fuel prices higher, including in America.</p>

<p>The waiver also follows a diesel deal with Moscow. On 9 October, the US Treasury authorised transactions in Russian diesel until April next year, and Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons. Yet a bipartisan group of senators, writing earlier this week, urged Trump to apply economic pressure on "the chief enablers of its war, in particular China."</p>

<h2>Asia's buyers: Beijing unmoved, New Delhi squeezed</h2>

<p>According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China was the top buyer of Russian fossil fuels in August, at 8.4 billion euros, followed by India at 4.8 billion euros, with Turkey third. When the law passed, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said: "China consistently opposes long-arm jurisdiction."</p>

<p>For India, the stakes are sharper. It imports more than 88% of its crude. Tanker tracker Kpler, cited by The Indian Express, says India took 1.9 million barrels a day of Russian crude in September, over 35% of its oil imports, after a record 2.8 million barrels a day in July. With flows through the Strait of Hormuz constrained, those barrels are hard to replace. An expert, quoted anonymously by The Economic Times, put it bluntly: "constantly holding a loaded gun to your strategic partner's head is no way to build a sustainable long-term partnership."</p>

<p>After Mumbai, Rubio visits Reliance's giant Jamnagar refinery, which The Hindu describes as one of the top refiners of Russian Urals crude. The US-India trade deal is not done; Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the talks plateaued.</p>

<p>New Delhi is squeezed from the other side too. On Friday, Sitharaman called China's non-tariff barriers the biggest hurdle in bilateral trade, after Chinese customs data showed India's trade deficit with China reached $105.9 billion in nine months. Beijing's reply, from spokesperson Mao Ning: "China never aims for trade surplus."</p>

<h2>The scorecard</h2>

<p>Moscow is the short-term winner: no new penalty on its biggest customers, and its diesel back on the market. Beijing wins without conceding anything: it never changed course, and the tariff never came. New Delhi gets relief, but not control: the waiver can be lifted whenever Washington decides, and the trade deal is still open. Washington gets cheaper fuel before the vote, at a cost to the credibility of its own sanctions law.</p>

<h2>Our verdict</h2>

<p>The gun is holstered, not unloaded. Washington has turned a sanctions law into a bargaining chip, and the partner most exposed to it is New Delhi, which needs a trade deal with Washington, not Beijing, which has already shown it will not move. India has bought time, not certainty.</p>

<p>Watch three things: what Jaishankar and Rubio say in Mumbai on Tuesday, whether the US Trade Representative recommends further action, and whether the waiver survives the midterms.</p>

<h2>Sources</h2>

<ul>

<li><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/implementing-the-lindsey-o-graham-sanctioning-russia-and-iran-act-of-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The White House, 16 Oct 2026 (posted 17 Oct 00:34 UTC)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-waives-sanctions-tariffs-russian-oil-lindsey-graham/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBS News (Joe Walsh), updated 17 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/russian-oil-tariff-waiver-india-energy-security-trump-10925795/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Indian Express (Sukalp Sharma), 17/18 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-lifts-sanctions-on-sale-of-russian-diesel-in-global-markets/article71565823.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hindu (PTI), 10 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/937216/download" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OFAC GL dated 9 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/kremlin-says-russia-restarts-diesel-exports-after-deal-with-trump/article71589598.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kremlin says Russia restarts diesel exports (The Hindu)</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84484" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kyiv Post citing Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 14 Sep 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://dailypioneer.com/news/china-opposes-us-congress-sanctions-bill" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Pioneer (PTI, KJM Varma), 18 Sep 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/News/SpokesmansRemarks/art/2026/art_195bf3526a714d6ebe8e96b7d8ee47b4.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reserves right to take all necessary measures</a></li>

<li><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/trump-looks-to-rein-in-fuel-prices-ahead-of-midterms-waives-threat-of-100-tariffs-on-india-over-russian-oil-citing-national-interest-as-us-inks-diesel-pact-with-moscow/articleshow/135018802.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Economic Times (Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury), 18 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/10/secretary-rubios-travel-to-samarkand-mumbai-and-jamnagar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US State Department, 13 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/ahead-of-reliance-industries-investing-in-texas-refinery-rubio-to-meet-ambani-in-jamnagar/articleshow/135022685.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Times of India (TNN), 18 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/marco-rubio-to-skip-delhi-visit-mumbai-and-jamnagar-next-week/article71585393.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hindu (Suhasini Haidar), 15 Oct 2026</a></li>

<li><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-says-ready-to-address-each-others-concerns-after-fm-sitharaman-flags-trade-barriers/article71593446.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hindu (PTI, Beijing), 16 Oct 2026 (upd. 18 Oct)</a></li>

</ul>