Vietnam eyes double-digit retail growth through 2030 as e-commerce surges

Vietnam's retail sector is positioned for robust expansion over the coming decade, with policymakers setting sights on sustained double-digit growth rates through 2030. Government projections indicate that annual retail sales and consumer service revenue could climb 14-15% yearly during the period, building on recent momentum that saw sales rise 11.2% in the first five months of the year.

E-commerce represents the primary engine for this projected expansion. Online retail revenue is forecast to grow 23-25% annually, potentially reaching 93-97 billion USD by 2030—nearly double its current levels. This growth trajectory would elevate e-commerce to represent 18-19% of total retail sales and consumer service revenue, underscoring the structural shift toward digital commerce in Vietnamese consumer behavior.

Recent market performance supports optimistic projections. Retail sales and consumer services climbed nearly 13% in the first half of the year, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite broader economic headwinds. Emerging distribution channels, including livestreaming commerce platforms, have proven effective at expanding market reach for Vietnamese goods beyond local borders, opening new revenue streams for retailers and manufacturers.

The expansion reflects a broader shift in Vietnam's economy toward consumer-driven growth. As incomes rise and digital infrastructure matures, retailers and e-commerce platforms are positioning themselves to capture growing domestic demand while simultaneously leveraging new sales channels to reach regional and international markets. Achieving the targeted growth rates will require continued investment in digital infrastructure, logistics networks, and merchant capabilities across the retail ecosystem.