Business · Singapore Bureau
WTO raises 2026 goods trade forecast despite Middle East tensions
The World Trade Organization has upgraded its outlook for global merchandise trade growth next year to 3.9%, buoyed by artificial intelligence-driven demand. However, the Geneva-based body trimmed its services trade forecast, citing disruptions to transport and travel from regional conflicts.
LSN Singapore ·
The WTO's latest trade forecast reflects diverging fortunes across economic sectors as geopolitical tensions weigh on specific industries. Merchandise trade is expected to expand at a faster pace than previously anticipated, with the artificial intelligence boom providing a significant boost to goods shipments globally. The upgraded projection to 3.9% suggests resilience in the physical goods market despite broader economic headwinds.
Services trade, however, faces headwinds that the WTO could not overlook. The organisation downgraded its services growth outlook to 3.3%, a reflection of how Middle East instability has disrupted critical transport and tourism sectors. Airlines, shipping companies, and travel-related businesses have all felt the impact of regional conflicts and heightened security concerns.
The mixed outlook underscores the complex nature of global trade recovery, where technological advancement in some areas is offset by geopolitical instability in others. For Asia-Pacific economies like Singapore, which serve as crucial trade hubs, the divergent forecasts present both opportunities and challenges. The strong goods trade growth may benefit regional export-dependent industries, while disruptions to logistics and travel services could complicate supply chain operations and business travel patterns.