Politics · World News Bureau
Xi's empty chair: Beijing cools on Manila's ASEAN year
Xi Jinping is set to skip the ASEAN Summit in Manila while hosting APEC in Shenzhen. The protocol is old; the mood is new.
LSN World News ·
<p><em>Special Reporting from LSN News, adapted from today's Power Play Asia episode. <a href="https://youtu.be/Zlqhp_2l9Vk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Watch the video on YouTube.</a></em></p>
<p>Southeast Asia's leaders gather in Manila in ten days for the 49th ASEAN Summit, and China's president will not be among them. Diplomatic sources told The Philippine Star that Xi Jinping is skipping the meeting, and Manila's foreign ministry says it is Premier Li Qiang who attends these summits, not President Xi. On the summit's final day, Xi begins hosting the region's leaders himself at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. The question for Asia: is Beijing snubbing Manila, or simply choosing its own stage?</p>
<h2>The empty chair</h2>
<p>The summit runs from 16 to 18 November. Manila's foreign ministry says Li has customarily led China's delegation to ASEAN summits in recent years, and that official confirmation of his attendance usually comes closer to the date. The Star's sources noted that Xi has never attended an ASEAN summit in person; when China co-chaired a special summit with ASEAN in 2021, he joined by video link.</p>
<p>On protocol alone, this is not new. What is new is the mood. Asked if Manila still hoped Xi would come, palace press officer Claire Castro said, "We hope so." Philippine ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez admitted there had been "a little bit of a situation problem", and said Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro was talking to Beijing about the premier's attendance. When the host publicly hopes for a guest who never comes, the absence becomes the message, whether Beijing intends it or not.</p>
<h2>The sea</h2>
<p>The chill did not start this week. In October, China's ambassador in Manila, Jing Quan, told reporters, "If we want to use force, we may easily win," adding that China would not choose force because "we love peace." President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said it sounded "very much to me like a threat." Manila summoned the ambassador and called the remarks "provocative and unacceptable."</p>
<p>Then came the defence ministers' meeting in Cebu. China's defence ministry accused the Philippines of obstructing its participation and of violating "basic diplomatic protocols." Defence Minister Dong Jun stayed away. According to The Diplomat, as reported by IANS, China sent its defence attaché, the lowest level of Chinese representation since the forum began in 2010.</p>
<p>On Tuesday the two foreign ministers finally spoke by phone. Lazaro called it "frank, pragmatic and constructive." Manila says they agreed on three principles: keep talking, avoid words and actions that needlessly damage ties, and settle disputes peacefully. Beijing's account was sharper: Wang Yi told Manila to "exercise caution in their words and deeds" on the South China Sea, and to issue what China called a rational and unified statement on its China policy. According to the Associated Press, a Philippine official said joint oil and gas exploration at Reed Bank was also raised.</p>
<h2>The rivals and the scorecard</h2>
<p>While Beijing sent an attaché to Cebu, others sent ministers. On the sidelines, the defence chiefs of the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, the grouping some now call the Squad, agreed to advance cooperation through consultations and joint exercises. Australia's Richard Marles said China's military build-up is creating a "condition of pressure" across Southeast Asia, calling it the largest conventional military expansion since the Second World War. "For a middle power like Australia," he said, "it is actually the rules which give us agency." On the last day of October, the Quad foreign ministers of Japan, the United States, Australia and India, meeting in Atlanta, voiced "grave concerns" over economic coercion without naming China, Kyodo reports.</p>
<p>Beijing is not without cards. It hosts APEC in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November, and Wang told Lazaro that China looks forward to Marcos attending. Both sides promised each other's leaders proper courtesies.</p>
<p>The scorecard: Beijing is keeping its leader for its own stage and showing displeasure through the level of who it sends. Manila is firm on sovereignty but working hard to keep the door open. Washington and its partners are filling the room Beijing leaves empty. The rest of ASEAN is caught between a chair who is angry and a neighbour who is absent.</p>
<p>Our verdict: Xi's absence is protocol; the downgrade in Cebu was a message. Beijing is rationing its presence to show Manila what friction costs. Watch two things: whether Li Qiang is confirmed for Manila, and whether Marcos flies to Shenzhen. If both happen, the reset is real. If either slips, the South China Sea quarrel has become a contest over ASEAN itself.</p>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/11/04/2567746/chinas-xi-skipping-asean-meet-palace-hopeful" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star (Alexis Romero), 4 Nov 2026, "China's Xi skipping Asean meet, Palace hopeful"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/11/05/2567900/dfas-lazaro-chinese-fm-frank-constructive-talk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Philippine Star (Pia Lee-Brago), 5 Nov 2026, "DFA's Lazaro, Chinese FM in 'frank, constructive' talk"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/11/04/news/chinese-president-to-skip-asean-summit/2461526" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Manila Times (Bernadette E. Tamayo), 4 Nov 2026, "Chinese president to skip Asean Summit"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://bnc.bilyonaryo.com/envoy-chinese-premier-yet-to-confirm-asean-summit-attendance/news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bilyonaryo News Channel (Kevin Pilapil), 4 Nov 2026, "Envoy: Chinese premier yet to confirm ASEAN summit attendance"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2026/11/4/will-xi-jinping-attend-or-skip-the-asean-summit-1551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABS-CBN News, 4 Nov 2026, "Will Xi Jinping attend or skip the ASEAN Summit?"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-summons-chinese-ambassador-threat-6471136" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA, 19 Oct 2026, "Philippines summons China's envoy over remarks conveying 'threat'"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/1006107/marcos-to-summon-chinese-envoy-over-use-of-force-remark/story/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GMA News, Oct 2026, "Marcos to summon Chinese envoy over 'use of force' remark"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/philippines-china-agree-to-manage-maritime-tensions-as-diplomatic-reset-gathers-pace-1.500736559" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gulf News (Jay Hilotin), 5 Nov 2026, "Philippines, China agree to manage maritime tensions as diplomatic reset gathers pace"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://ianslive.in/chinas-military-build-up-south-china-sea-tensions-loom-over-asean-defence-meet--20261105202107" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IANS, 5 Nov 2026, "China's military build-up, South China Sea tensions loom over ASEAN Defence meet"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/2026/11/the-squad-and-the-quad-2-tracks-of-security-cooperation-in-the-indo-pacific/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Diplomat, Nov 2026, "The Squad and the Quad: 2 Tracks of Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific"</a></li>
<li><a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/90033" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kyodo News, 1 Nov 2026, "Japan, U.S., Australia, India take aim at China's economic policies"</a></li>
</ul>